Former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia appears to be closing in on victory in the governing New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) presidential primaries, according to a new survey released by research firm Global InfoAnalytics, just days before delegates head to the polls.
The firm’s latest committed voters model places Dr. Bawumia at 48 percent, leaving him just two points short of the 50-percent-plus-one threshold required for an outright win.
His closest rival, outspoken lawmaker Kennedy Agyapong, trails at 25 percent, marking a decline from the previous polling round. Other contenders remain far behind, with Dr. Bryan Acheampong at 6 percent, Education Minister Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum at 1 percent, while Kwabena Agyapong registers negligible support.
Undecided voters hold the key
Despite Dr. Bawumia’s strong showing, the poll highlights a significant undecided bloc, with 21 percent of delegates declining to disclose their voting preference.
Global InfoAnalytics notes that Dr. Bawumia would need to secure only a small fraction of these undecided delegates to clinch victory in the first round.
“The data suggests a clear momentum shift in favour of Dr. Bawumia,” the research firm said, pointing to gains made since its last poll.
Regional dominance
The survey also indicates that Dr. Bawumia is leading in 14 of Ghana’s 16 regions, with the Central and Volta Regions emerging as the only areas where he does not currently hold an advantage.
Analysts say the breadth of this regional support underscores his appeal among party delegates and strengthens his position as the frontrunner.
Final projections expected
With just one week remaining before the primaries, Global InfoAnalytics says it will soon release its final predictive model, offering a clearer picture of the likely outcome.
The NPP primaries are seen as a critical contest, as the party prepares to select a candidate capable of retaining power amid economic pressures and rising political competition ahead of the next general election.
While opinion polls offer insight into delegate sentiment, party officials and observers caution that internal elections can still deliver surprises, particularly with a sizeable number of delegates yet to publicly declare their choice.
