Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global Info Analytics, has reacted to Mohammed Baba Jamal Ahmed’s victory in the Ayawaso East NDC primary on Saturday, February 7, despite previous predictions.
Baba Jamal, Ghana’s High Commissioner to Nigeria, won with 431 votes, or 45%, while his nearest opponent, Hajia Amina Adam, got 399 votes (41%).
Following the announcement of results by the Electoral Commission (EC), which declared Baba Jamal as the winner, Mr. Dankwah went to social media to provide a detailed post-election study, comparing the outcome with his firm’s Model 1 pre-primary forecasts.
Mr. Dankwah humorously admitted that his projections were incorrect in certain areas, stating, “I was defeated in the just-ended NDC primaries in Ayawaso East, but I will not make any statement regardless,” before delving into the statistics behind the miss.
According to Mr. Dankwah, Global Info Analytics’ Model 1 had a margin of error of 3%, with certain candidates performing as predicted and others falling substantially short.
He stated that Muhammed Ramni, who received roughly 9%, was within the anticipated margin of error, adding that the figure included the basic estimate as well as permissible deviation.
Dr. Azindow and Najib Sani, according to Mr. Dankwah, performed mostly as expected.
However, the two leading candidates showed the greatest differences.
Hajia Amina, who was expected to win 50%, received 41%, an underperformance of 9%, putting her 6% beyond the model’s margin of error.
On the other hand, Baba Jamal, who was expected to receive 38% (potentially rising to 41% within the error range), surpassed expectations by getting 45%, placing him 4% above the model’s upper limit.
Mr. Dankwah refrained from providing a firm justification for the disparities, preferring to let people interpret them.
According to reports, candidate Baba Jamal engaged in vote-buying, giving 32-inch Nanco television sets to delegates before the NDC Ayawaso primaries.
In a closing statement full of humor and emojis, the pollster joked, “It took to defeat science and data,” which many observers understood as tongue-in-cheek rather than a formal accusation, since no proof was offered to support claims of inducement.
However, President John Dramani Mahama has ordered Baba Jamal’s immediate resignation as Ghana’s High Commissioner to Nigeria amid considerable accusations of vote-buying and corruption during the primary.
Source: myjoyonline.com